Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Pre-Budget 2019 Survey

Business confidence survey 2019 insights

Prior to the release of the 2019 Budget, we asked New Zealand business leaders their opinions. Here are the results of over 500 responses.

Question 1

How is the government performing when it comes to managing the broader New Zealand economy?

Pre budget survey performance

Very well / well Poorly / very poorly Not sure
31.77% 62.78% 5.45%

Question 2

Thinking specifically about this year’s upcoming Budget, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact on:

Pre budget survey positive or negative

  Very positive Positive Neither positive or negative Negative Very negative Not sure
You personally 1.5% 6.95% 40.79% 40.60% 6.95% 3.20%
Your business 0.79% 9.31% 33.47% 42.77% 8.71% 4.95%
The NZ economy 1.15% 14.94% 20.50% 49.43% 11.30% 2.68%
New Zealanders' wellbeing 6.49% 22.33% 36.07% 25.38% 6.68% 3.05%

Question 3

Do you expect this year’s Budget to be better or worse than last year’s Budget for:

Pre budget survey better or worse

  Much better A little better About the same A little worse A lot worse Not sure
You personally 0.94% 8.85% 39.55% 38.04% 10.17% 2.45%
Your business 1.38% 6.29% 36.35% 35.95% 14.34% 5.70%
The NZ economy 1.71% 12.93% 27.95% 37.07% 17.87% 2.47%
New Zealanders' wellbeing 7.25% 20.80% 35.88% 24.62% 8.59% 2.86%

Question 4

What do you expect the following economic indicators to do over the next year?

Pre budget survey indicators

  Increase a lot (5) Increase a little (4) Stay about the same (3) Decrease a little (2) Decrease a lot (1) Not sure 2019 Sentiment (3-neutral) 2018 Sentiment
NZ economic growth forecasts 0.94% 11.68% 22.98% 49.91% 13.56% 0.94% 2.34 2.48
Consumer confidence 1.33% 12.90% 21.82% 45.35% 17.84% 0.76% 2.32  2.34
Business confidence 1.13% 8.49% 16.94% 2.26% 30.19% 0.94% 2.05  2.08
International investments 0.95% 9.64% 24.14% 34.22% 26.28% 3.78% 2.13  2.16
Exports 1.70% 26.14% 39.96% 22.16% 6.44% 3.60% 2.84  2.98
Dairy prices 2.27% 21.78% 43.18% 21.21% 4.55% 7.01% 2.75  2.87
Job security 2.08% 10.21% 35.35% 41.97% 8.88% 1.51% 2.50  2.58
House prices 4.54% 24.36% 34.59% 31.95% 3.78% 0.76% 2.92  3.05

Question 5

How important is it for the government to: 

Pre budget survey importance

  Very important Somewhat important Not so important Not at all important Not sure
Balance the budget 53.38% 35.98% 9.09% 0.97% 0.58% 
Measure performance through economic factors (such as GDP and employment rates) 49.91% 40.26% 7.37% 0.76% 1.70%
Measure performance through environmental factors (such as air and water quality) 29.55% 40.53% 23.48% 5.68% 0.76%
Measure performance through personal wellbeing factors (such as mental health and community engagement) 30.19% 42.26% 18.68% 7.55% 1.32%

Question 6

Which measures do you feel are most important to include in this year's budget.Please select five:

Pre budget survey include in budget

Productivity growth 57.89%
Education 56.77%
GDP Growth 54.32%
Hospital waiting lists 53.95%
Environment 43.61%
Government debt 42.29%
Mental health 39.10%
Housing affordability 35.34%
Child poverty 33.46%
Average income 27.44%
Unemployment rate 21.80%
Income inequality 18.98%
Other 7.89%
Perceptions of safety 7.14%

Question 8

Here are some things that other businesses have said government could do to create a better environment for business growth. Rank the following issues in order of how much of a difference they’d make to your business.

Pre budget survey positive difference

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Simplify the tax system and cut red tape for business 12.84% 11.01% 12.16% 8.03% 8.26% 8.94% 9.63% 9.86% 12.61% 6.65%
Reduce company tax rates 12.84% 11.01% 12.16% 8.03% 8.26% 8.94% 9.63% 9.86% 12.61% 6.65%
Reduce personal tax rates 13.06% 11.49% 13.74% 12.61% 10.36% 7.66% 6.76% 10.81% 8.56% 4.95%
Introduce a Capital Gains Tax 3.87% 2.96% 2.51% 2.05% 2.51% 3.64% 4.10% 4.10% 11.85% 62.41%
Invest in research and development systems 4.62% 12.01% 15.47% 16.63% 12.47% 13.16% 11.78% 7.39% 5.31% 1.15%
Invest in infrastructure (i.e. rail, ports, roads etc) 19.25% 19.91% 15.27% 11.50% 12.17% 8.41% 4.87% 3.54% 3.10% 1.99%
Encourage the immigration of highly skilled workers 6.21% 9.20% 8.51% 11.72% 14.02% 11.03% 13.33% 12.87% 9.43% 3.68%
Invest in science, technology, and math education 9.21% 11.24% 13.48% 8.31% 17.98% 11.24% 11.91% 8.99% 5.84% 1.80%
Reduce barriers to international investment 3.12% 4.56% 5.04% 9.35% 11.27% 12.23% 12.23% 16.55% 17.03% 8.63%
Invest in New Zealanders' wellbeing 9.34% 7.97% 10.48% 10.25% 9.11% 13.21% 12.30% 9.57% 13.67% 4.10%

Question 9

In light of the Government's recent rejection of a Capital Gains Tax, do you expect tax changes to be introduced in the next 12 months that will:

Pre budget survey tax change

Increase taxes 62.79%
No change to taxes  33.47% 
Reduce taxes 3.74%

Question 10

Do you support a higher top income band for very high earners?

Pre budget survey income band

Yes - Over $200,000 32.20%
Yes - Over $150,000 20.83% 
No 40.72%
Unsure 6.25%

Question 11 and 13

How has your business performance changed over the last 12 months? How is your business performance likely to change over the next 12 months?

Pre budget survey performance change

  Last 12 months Next 12 months
Improve significantly 13.30% 11.06%
Improve 13.54% 23.34
Stayed the same 43.23% 39.56%
Worsen 18.05% 13.76%
Worsen significantly 11.88% 12.29%

Question 12 and 14

How has the number of employees in your business changed over the last 12 months? How is the number of employees in your business likely to change over the next 12 months?

Pre budget survey employees

  Last 12 months Next 12 months
Increase 21.37% 19.20%
Stay the same 63.32% 63.87%
Decrease 15.30% 14.93%

 

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